Investigators have predicted that the demand for total joint arthroplasties may outpace the growth of the orthopedic surgeon workforce by 2050, according to a report summarizing recent research published in HealthDay. In a new study—published by Rullán et al in The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery and simultaneously presented at the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons 2023 Annual Meeting—investigators calculated the number of orthopedic surgeons, residents, and adult reconstruction fellows who were actively conducting total joint arthroplasties, as well as the projected 2050 procedure-to-surgeon ratios. With the volume of total joint arthroplasty procedures increasing by 130% from 2000 to 2018, they estimated that the volume of total hip and knee arthroplasties would reach 1.22 million and 1.04 million, respectively, and that the volume of total joint arthroplasties would increase by 51% by 2050. Further, the number of orthopedic surgeons increased by 7.5% and the procedure-to-surgeon ratio increased by 110% from 2000 to 2017; the number of orthopedic residents and adult reconstruction fellows increased by 25% and nearly 100%, respectively, from 2010 to 2021. The investigators anticipated that the orthopedic surgeon workforce would decline by 14% and the procedure-to-surgeon ratio would increase by 97% by 2050. “Managing this increased volume without compromising quality may require the increased use of high-volume surgical centers …and advanced practice providers, like physician’s associates and nurse practitioners,” concluded the investigators.
May 25, 2023